Who will win the Olympic marathon?

Can't remember the last time I went for a long run on my own. Anyhow, left the house after a nice lie-in and hit centennial just after 11am. The plan was to 9 laps of the inside track at 4.30 pace and then finish off with 2 1k's at 4 min/k pace. That's exactly how it panned out. Felt relatively comfortable until the last lap even though it was the fastest lap. Livo dropped by towards the end and promised coffee and croissants when i finished which gave me an added incentive to push the last 2k running - running sub 4m/k was pretty comfortable. It's weird, this running lark is very much a mental battle and the more I run the more I think Noakes is bang on the money with his central governor theory. Knee never gave me any trouble but was a little sore when i got home will ice for the rest of day. All up 36.2k in 2.41.
Interesting to watch the women's 5000m last night, obviously I was cheering for the beautiful Kara Goucher who ended up coming home in 9th with a pretty slow time of 15.49. I suppose the first km was ridiculously slow and the change in pace caught most people out. It fascinating to think some of the these girls went throu' 5000m last week in the 10000m final in 15.09 and the majority finished a lot slower last night in the 5000m.
Looking forward to the men's 5000m tonight and I can't see anyone stop Bekele unless the race is very slow which will give Lagat a chance. The men's marathon will also be an interesting race. There are about 10 runners who I think can win it. It's difficult to predict the winner as you don't really know how there training is going.
The Kenyans:
Martin Lel, Samuel Wanjiru
The Moroccans:
Jaouad Gharib, Abderrahim Goumri
The Americans:
Ryan Hall and possibly Brian Snell
The Ethiopians:
Deribe Merga, Tsegaye Tebede
The Eritrean: Yared Asmeron who ran very well last year in Oska and then ran a super 2.08 in Japan's Lake Biwa
Other Runners to watch: Atsushi Sato from Japan, Shami fro Qatar and from Europe Viktor Rothlin (Swiss) and Baldini (Italy).
It will be pretty hot so it won't be a super fast probably around 2.11. In saying that, it will be interesting to see if any of the countries work together. I could see the Kenyans and Ethiopians pushing hard from 5k to break up the field. Apparently Baldini is carrying an injury who is a great championship racer and also loves running in the heat. If he's injury free i expect him to get a medal. I also think Lel will also get a medal. Ryan Hall and Wanjiru will go close. Troopy should be happy with a top 10 finish but could surprise us. The Irish runner Martin Fagan who has been injured all year will be happy to run and finish the race. I have a feeling Rothlin from Swiss will take the race out. Can't wait for it now. Pity the world record holder Haile is not running but he is keen on taking me out in Berlin on the 28th Sept..35 days left..